Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Sensex and the herd mentality

I have been following the sensex for the past few months and have witnessed its growth from 12500 levels to the 13600 levels it is at now. Kinda feels like we are on a bubble that is about to burst very soon like it has happened in the past. Or is it possible that it is just a reflection of the stupendous growth of the Indian economy...hard to tell. But there is no doubt that the current run up to 13700 is partially supported by strong Q3 earnings announcements across the board. The other pillar for the run up has been increased FII inflows, but these are anything but stable. Indian markets are already on the pricey side in terms of P/E. What happens when the FI's decide to take their party elsewhere and the retail investors like me are left to lick our wounds. Retail investors can at best, ride the wave created by Institutional investors; and are not by themeselves capable of influencing the market movements by a big deal. So in effect the retail investor usually stands to lose and is better of investing in mutual funds wherein he gains the advantage of the scale of the fund.

Nonetheless I have been peeing into the wind and investing in the secondary market like a dog in heat. My humble portfolio has not been able to match the returns of the sensex. At least things have not gone so bad as to erode my net worth. I keep consoling myself that my maturity horizon is different and hence I will get my due (the retail investor species are known to over rationalize their wrong decisions)....keeping my fingers crossed.

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